Care, market efficiency is rising

Preponderance should prove to be accurate.

Equity earning expectations are high but still appear achievable. AI investment needs to show in bottom lines, the Trump presidency has to deliver economic prosperity and global geo politics must stabilise in a sensible time frame. Rate forecasts are priced in line now and bonds yields and curves are at realistic levels. With opportunities in traditional assets well priced and algo trades making timing trades substantially more risky, it is reasonable to consider where are the better opportunities ? Likely key indicators in fx rates and intra Europe bond spreads. Position carefully for EUR strength eventually, absolute bonds yields are still at good levels. Equity selection needs to be specific stories. Beta exposure probably needs to wait for economic growth convergence once trade barriers and retaliatory measures have been played out. Populism remains the democratic mandate but impact on global GDP is a significant risk. Periphery assets - crypto, commodities, EM or similar are still in my view only small parts of a diversified portfolio, increasing percentages is worth considering. Patience may pay but could be a long boring wait !